A nun silence reigns in the Allianz Global Investors market Hall. Yet, mine-laying environment of markets should increase agitation. But the insurer asset management subsidiary has been able to avoid the trap of the promises of fabulous yields. "Common sense never did us forget that pay for placement is at the risk taken by the investor", explains Franck Dixmier, the Director of management. And then, exposure to shares was sous-pondérée since the summer around 38 in balanced portfolios.
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Certainly, he expects nothing good for 2009, but in terms of positive signals, he rejected the hypothesis of a great depression. "Governments have taken the lessons of the past," he said. He wants to evidence support plans to counter deflationary risks. For the moment, its investment strategy is strongly defensive. Valuation multiples or dividends are no longer of sufficient arguments for purchase. Also Franck Dixmier remains out of action because of profit forecasts 2009 still too high. Prefer them the new bond issues in euro. "Quality companies offer to loans of State a higher yield of 4." Excess that it observes in particular on Bank signatures where the margin on loans of State reached more than 3, while they enjoy a Government quasi-garantie!
He loves:
"The concerted support."
"of the States".
The crisis has planted a serious knife in liberal orthodoxy. The credo of self-regulation is now replaced by interventionism and state capitalism. A new political vision, the immediate effect of which is to enter the State as a major economic player. The United States have pulled the first with an additional $ 700 billion economic rescue plan. This astronomical amount indicates the extreme gravity of the crisis across the Atlantic and the need to mobilize ways at stake. "But it also clearly emphasizes the strengthening of the regulatory action of public authorities." A forced and unprecedented initiative resumed in Europe as in the Japan and countries emerging (China, India), where each of the countries to make concerted and proactive responses to the fire: lower rates, a guarantee of current accounts, support for industries in difficulty, entry in the capital of financial institutions with revision of the remuneration and leaders parachutes, purchase of Treasury billstoxic debt recovery... So put tools in place to avoid that recession turns into depression, disinflation becomes deflation.
He does not like:
"Expediency".
"of the Deutsche Bank"
Announcing mid-December that it would not exercise its option to subordinated debt ("lower Tier-2", or LT2) 1 billion euros, Deutsche Bank has surprised and disappointed investors. "It gave the impression to advance its interests and to disregard a respected practice has always been." This bond compartment can be indeed bought the first date of recall by the issuer, either in General five years ahead. Deutsche Bank is the first major bank to depart from the use. "Of course, it is in the right and the exercise of its"call"would have cost him dearly." However, this initiative is short-sighted because it resulted in a depreciation immediate conditions of issuing bond markets, but more serious, it penalizes the whole segment for the Bank subordinated debt already heavily sanctioned in the financial crisis.
This isolated attitude seems particularly inappropriate at a time where States mobilize public money to support a very affected banking sector. From my point of view and in the turbulent context that we live, especially it is not absurd to think that a major player in the financial sector has duties that go beyond the defence of its interests; Note also that this event prompted banks to position themselves on this subject, the image of BNP Paribas announced the exercise of this Faculty of reminder... a responsible attitude, that honors it, and an example to follow.