It is sufficient to observe the indicators of the Insee

When a chimney fire turns into fire, should we discuss at length about whether, or not, out pumps Yet, this is the dominant discourse in Europe and France significantly. We are, or not, deflation The most common answer is "no"; the underlying idea being that if one goes to the diving, it will be time to adjust.

During this time, the Americans chose for a quick, and massive relaunch which everyone will now measure amplification under Obama. This should not be a surprise: any early November, the statement made in Washington reported in these columns we had convinced us to go faster and further, determination until and including the monetary creation, without hesitation.

The wonder is not American policy, but the slowness and hesitations of European leaders, as the majority of the experts that surround them. It should be obvious that the query on the theme "deflation or not" is widely exceeded. The "think tanks" washingtoniens say, they openly: deflation is here.

John Makin, the famous economist of the American Enterprise Institute, do not hesitate to grab his voice when he refers to and welcomed well low the famous statement by the Fed, end of December: "the fed makes history" (the Fed took a historic decision). Translation: by reducing the pay of the "Fed funds" to almost zero, said Makin, the Central Bank admitted that it must move from a policy of rate adjustment to an "open-market" strategy aimed at increasing the money supply. Texto!

Step one gram of ideology in this reasoning, it's pure technique: specifically a simple calculation "cost-benefit". Follow Makin: when the Central Bank wants to fight inflation, it has wide latitude to attach a standard: this may be 1, 3 or 5, but it cannot be said a priori that 1 is "better" than 5. On the other hand, between deflation 1 and 5 deflation, there is not a ratio of 1 to 5, but much more. Why Because the risk of depression increases exponentially as the decline in the price rises. Thus was born the spiral deflationary, very difficult to stop.

It should therefore not prevaricate. As explained Charles Kindleberger in his monumental history of crises (but which, in economic policy makers, read Kindleberger) quasi-obsessionnelle question should be: "when Act." What dose . Knowing that the historical experience is to show us that very often the answer is so expected that directly leads to the sad verdict "too little, too late".

This is obviously not say that the France must copy America in all points; at least should the urgency of the diagnosis of deflation jump us to the eyes. It is sufficient to observe the indicators of the Insee. No, not the general price index (which plays only ex-post) but the gap growing between production capacity and order books. It, since the peak of mid-2008, is that dive ( 20 in four months!). Same observation for investment projects and business, not to mention the stock market slump failures.

Some liberals hard, referring to the Act of Jean-Baptiste Say opportunities, say that it can be no gap between supply and demand, since "products are exchanged against the products. It is undeniable, but at what level of activity is the balance The conditions and expectations, levels rise or descend: today, the application above the offer in his fall, at each step of the staircase there is a level of less than the previous balance. This is b-a-ba of the situational analyses.

But nothing: it reads every day, all columns, that economists "do not believe" deflation. Believe or not believe, that is not the issue; in any case not for economists, which we would like that they just to observe.

It is surprising that the blur of the diagnosis causes hesitation in decisions In America, the cost/benefit balance being clear (better a little bit of inflation than the risk of a long depression), it darkens ruthlessly. And it will pass to the superior speed with the new administration. Here, it is Visual navigation. Who sees the paradox While the United States, due to lack of savings, have no other way that the use of the monetary creation, the France has a mattress of liquid savings which could be partly transformed, if the idea of mobilization was cleverly justified and presented as attractive. But don't dare.

Such is the condition of the premises. Let us propel in 2012, so that "Obama effect", in addition to technical measures, time for play. What do we see An American requinquée, to which our companies may not weigh heavy. What will complement the invincible American technological advance, that many of our economic experts strive to judge declining!... The error of appreciation is sometimes excused: not the fabrication.